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As the U.S.-led global trade and tax war unfolds, the list of strategic beneficiaries is slowly becoming clear—and among the unexpected winners, Iran is quietly capitalizing on the shifting geopolitical tides. While many economies are struggling to absorb the shockwaves of disrupted trade routes, soaring tariffs, and supply chain realignments, Iran and Russia are exploiting the instability to advance their long-term objectives.
For Iran, the calculus is not merely economic. The broader global fragmentation—fueled by U.S. efforts to decouple from China, sanction Russia, and overhaul global trade policy—is giving Tehran a rare window of strategic opportunity. The U.S., preoccupied with its sprawling economic front lines, is constrained in its ability to enforce a strong and unified foreign policy. This distraction is playing directly into the hands of Iran’s political and military planners.
A Familiar Strategy, Replayed
Veteran Iranian negotiators, who have outmanoeuvred multiple U.S. administrations over the past two decades, are once again resorting to a time-tested tactic: delay disguised as diplomacy. While indirect talks continue between the U.S. and Iran—often via mediators in Oman or Qatar—Iran’s real game is stalling. The goal? To buy enough time to quietly strengthen its nuclear capabilities without triggering open confrontation.
“The Iranians are masters at using negotiations as a delay tactic,” noted Richard Goldberg, senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. National Security Council official. “They’ve done it before, and they’re doing it again.”
This time, however, Iran’s strategy is more audacious. Intelligence assessments suggest Tehran is keeping uranium enrichment levels just below the threshold that would prompt military intervention. The tactic helps avoid direct retaliation while steadily moving closer to weapons capability. The long-term ambition is chillingly clear: to secure a nuclear deterrent akin to North Korea’s—rendering Iran “untouchable.”
Trump’s Second Term: Mixed Signals and Strategic Hesitations
As President Trump begins his second term, the initial tone of renewed toughness toward Iran has quickly given way to mixed signals. While some members of his national security team—particularly the Secretary of State and the National Security Council—continue to push for maximum pressure and zero-enrichment terms, others appear to favor a more flexible, Obama-era style engagement.
Chief U.S. negotiator David Witkoff, a key figure in recent backchannel discussions, has reportedly shown a willingness to explore a deal that would allow limited enrichment under heavy monitoring—a red line for the administration’s hawkish bloc. This internal split is not lost on Iran’s seasoned negotiators, who are once again exploiting American divisions with masterful precision.
Iran’s strategy is clear: maintain just enough cooperation to keep Witkoff and the softer camp engaged, while quietly betting that the U.S. will not risk another escalation—especially with oil prices volatile and U.S. global tariff policy already straining relationships with allies. Trump, once known for “maximum pressure,” now faces maximum complexity.
Betting on Washington’s Paralysis
Sources close to the negotiations say Iran is planning to ride out current U.S. leverage with minimal concessions, anticipating that internal discord and global distractions will stall any serious countermeasures. Tehran is increasingly confident that the U.S. will not jeopardize its already strained alliances or risk an oil shock that could spike inflation and further pressure the American consumer—especially amid ongoing trade disputes.
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, captured this sentiment: “Tehran believes that time is on its side. Every day it buys more technical know-how, and every day the U.S. loses political capital.”
Indeed, the broader landscape of tax and trade conflict is handicapping Washington’s foreign policy leverage. Sanctions enforcement is weakening as alternative trade networks deepen among BRICS nations. Iran, like Russia, is finding new markets and workarounds—especially as developing countries become more resistant to Western financial pressure.
The Quiet Winners of Global Fragmentation
As U.S. allies tighten compliance and shoulder economic burdens to align with Washington’s trade and tax strategy, Iran and Russia are seeing gains—not only in resilience but in positioning. Iran’s oil exports are flowing more freely through back channels. The rial, long in crisis, has stabilized somewhat on growing Asian demand. Meanwhile, global attention remains fixed on U.S.-China tensions, providing Iran with more breathing room than it’s had in years.
The broader implication is stark: the same global trade disruptions meant to isolate bad actors may be inadvertently giving them space to maneuver—and in Iran’s case, possibly reach a nuclear threshold without consequence.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Game of Delay
It’s too early to crown a final victor in the global economic showdown. But one reality is becoming clear: in the shadow of global trade and tax turmoil, Iran is executing a familiar yet effective playbook—stall, survive, and strengthen. If current trends continue, the Islamic Republic may emerge from this global reset not as a weakened rogue state, but as a nuclear-armed power with greater regional influence and global leverage.
And in that scenario, the true cost of trade fragmentation may not be measured in GDP—but in geopolitical fallout.
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