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House Republicans have moved forward with sweeping tax legislation that delivers substantial benefits to the nation’s highest earners while shelving proposals for a so-called “millionaire tax,” highlighting a persistent tension within the GOP between traditional economic orthodoxy and emerging populist pressures.
The House-passed bill extends key 2017 Trump tax law provisions, including cuts to top income brackets and expanded deductions for pass-through businesses. Left on the cutting room floor: proposals championed by former White House strategist Steve Bannon and backed, at times, by President Donald Trump himself, to raise taxes on millionaires and private equity firms.
“There was a moment when we thought a Trumpian populist turn on taxes might finally come to fruition,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “But the center of gravity in the GOP is still largely aligned with supply-side, trickle-down tax principles.”
Analysts across the spectrum estimate that top earners will see some of the most significant benefits. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy calculates that the top 1% of earners will receive an average cut of $70,000 in the bill’s first year. At the same time, those earning above $3.4 million could see annual reductions exceeding $250,000 by 2027. Middle-income households would benefit, too, to the tune of $1,700 on average, but the scale is markedly different.
Meanwhile, critics warn that the bill disproportionately disadvantages low-income Americans by tying some of its cost offsets to cuts in Medicaid and SNAP benefits. “This is a redistribution of income upward, plain and simple,” said Steve Wamhoff, policy director at ITEP.
Still, GOP leaders point to modeling from the White House Council of Economic Advisers showing the bill would boost take-home pay and job growth, citing a projected 7 million jobs created or preserved and a short-term wage bump of over $7,000 for the average family.
Some in the party insist the legislation is not purely a boon for the wealthy. The bill includes enhanced standard deductions and a tax break for tipped workers. However, these gestures appear modest compared to the windfall for high-income earners.
With the Senate poised to take up the legislation next month, the fate of Trump’s more populist tax suggestions appears uncertain. GOP senators are even less inclined to consider raising taxes on the wealthy, even as Trump reportedly continues to push a targeted levy on private equity.
“This is not a party that taxes millionaires,” said Grover Norquist, the anti-tax activist whose influence remains strong. “It never has been.”
As Republicans prepare for the 2026 midterms, the contrast between rhetoric and policy could sharpen, testing whether Trump-style economic nationalism can find firm legislative footing or whether the old GOP guard will continue to call the fiscal shots.
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