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China’s annual trade surplus has officially breached the $1 trillion mark for the first time in 2025, fueled by a November export surge that defied global headwinds. The data, released by the General Administration of Customs, comes just weeks after Washington and Beijing agreed to a tentative “tariff truce,” a diplomatic pause that now appears increasingly fragile.
Speaking at a major economic forum in Beijing today, Premier Li Qiang delivered his sharpest rebuke yet of Western protectionism. Li characterized the proliferating web of global tariffs as a “severe blow” to the interconnected global economy, warning that “erecting walls” would stifle innovation and drive up consumer costs worldwide.
“The logic of decoupling is the logic of regression,” Li stated, addressing a room of international business leaders. His comments directly targeted the recent wave of “carbon border adjustments” and technology-specific levies imposed by the U.S. and EU.
Despite these tensions, the November data indicates that Chinese manufacturers heavily front-loaded shipments in Q4, likely to hedge against the risk of the truce collapsing in early 2026. Exports of electric vehicles and solar components remained robust, particularly to non-aligned markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America, offsetting softer demand from the G7 nations.
Economists suggest this surplus complicates the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) currency management, potentially inviting accusations of currency manipulation if the renminbi is not allowed to appreciate.
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