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The Norwegian Tax Administration (Skatteetaten) has projected that petroleum tax revenue for 2025 will reach approximately NOK 336 billion, down NOK 45 billion from the 2024 provisional tax figure of NOK 381 billion.
This follows a steep decline from the record-setting NOK 884 billion in 2022, a year marked by soaring gas prices and a weakened Norwegian krone.
“The numbers signal a reversion to more normalized levels in the petroleum sector after the exceptional windfalls of recent years,” said a senior analyst at the Norwegian Petroleum Tax Office.
Petroleum Tax in Norway: How It Works
Petroleum companies operating on the Norwegian continental shelf pay advance income tax through a mechanism known as term tax (terminskatt).
Key features of this tax regime include:
- 10 payment terms: 5 installments during the income year and 5 in the following year
- Tax assessments are based on a mix of reported actuals and projected figures from oil companies
- A mid-year revision (in January) adjusts the forecast before the sixth installment
- Optional additional payments are allowed and may be distributed across specific terms
Why the Drop in Revenue?
The decrease in projected petroleum tax revenues for 2025 stems primarily from:
- Normalization of gas prices, compared to the extreme highs seen during 2022’s energy crisis
- More stable currency dynamics, as the Norwegian krone has regained relative strength
- Moderating global demand, as markets adjust post-pandemic and amid energy transitions
Where Does the Money Go?
Petroleum tax revenue contributes directly to Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (Statens pensjonsfond utland) — the world’s largest such fund — which secures long-term national wealth derived from natural resources.
Despite the reduction, NOK 336 billion remains a substantial fiscal contribution, underscoring the continued economic relevance of oil and gas in the Norwegian economy.
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