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Argentina’s 2025/26 Wheat Harvest Could Break Records if Export Tax Cuts Are Extended
Argentina’s wheat farmers are on the brink of a historic harvest, and it could go even higher if the government extends its current export tax breaks past June. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, which has forecast a 20.5 million metric ton wheat crop—the second-largest in the nation’s history—says that number could rise significantly with continued tax relief.
“We’re currently forecasting based on a 12% export tax rate,” said Ramiro Costa, chief economist at the exchange. “If the current 9.5% temporary rate is extended beyond June, our estimates will be adjusted upward.”
The 2021/22 season still holds the record at 22.4 million tons, but analysts say Argentina could rival or surpass that if favorable conditions persist.
In January, President Javier Milei’s libertarian administration slashed export duties on wheat, soy, and corn in a bid to accelerate sales and bring in much-needed U.S. dollars. However, Milei has since signaled the tax break will not be renewed after June, despite pressure from the agriculture sector.
The government’s recent decision to let the Argentine peso float freely—resulting in a sharp 10% devaluation—has further boosted farmer sentiment. A weaker currency means higher returns in pesos for exporters paid in dollars, incentivizing more shipments.
“All these government moves are positive,” said José Martins, president of the grain exchange. “But the broader tax burden still needs addressing.”
Still, Martins remains optimistic: “Let’s hope this half-full glass becomes completely full over the coming months.”
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